Up to 2mn infected in fifth wave: HKU study

University of Hong Kong researchers say their computer modelling indicates that somewhere between 1.5 and 2 million Hong Kong people have been infected with Covid-19 in the fifth wave of the pandemic.

The HKU research, released on Tuesday, indicates that the peak of the outbreak arrived on Friday, and it anticipates cases coming down to a reasonable level by mid-April.

Commenting on the findings on RTHK’s Hong Kong Today programme on Wednesday, Karen Grepin, an associate professor at HKU’s school of public health, said there were promising signs that case numbers would begin to decline. However, she said little could be done to drive down the number of deaths.

“We shouldn’t expect to be at the peak yet with regard to hospitalisations, severe cases and deaths,” she told RTHK’s Vicky Wong. “Those will come in the coming weeks; it is challenging at this point, I think, to be able to dramatically drive down.

“The primary reason, of course, is that a large number of the people who are going to get this already have it, so it’s very difficult to undo that.

“I think there is some way of doing a better job at triaging patients coming into the hospital setting and to make sure that we are only allocating resources towards the most severe cases.”

According to the report, if there are no changes in transmission dynamics and interventions for the rest of the fifth wave, an estimated 5,000 deaths will be recorded by May 1.

It says the death toll could potentially be reduced by combining at least three strategies modelled: expanding hospital care capacity, giving novel antiviral drugs to those at most risk and increasing vaccination levels. A further reduction could be achieved by reducing social mixing, including through a 14-day lockdown.