‘Covid cases won’t come down anytime soon’

A clinical virologist from the University of Hong Kong, Dr Siddharth Sridhar, has warned that tougher social-distancing measures coming into force would only slow the spread of the coronavirus, but not halt infections altogether.

He said the number of Covid-19 cases in Hong Kong, which surpassed 1,100 on Wednesday, has not peaked yet.

“A few thousand cases is entirely possible over the next few days,” he said.

“We are at a critical juncture because we have a very large unvaccinated elderly population. So, that means we have to do our best to keep local cases as low as possible, or to slow down transmission as much as possible, so it gives time [to people] to actually go out and get the vaccine.”

Among the tougher distancing measures to take effect on Thursday include restrictions on private gatherings at homes and the closure of hair salons and religious venues.

The expert said government containment efforts won’t be able to reduce the number of cases, at least in the near term.

“I don’t expect that the current measures will bring the cases down to zero anytime soon. That looks like it’s going to take weeks or months to achieve, if at all possible. So I think the current measures are mostly to prevent a very, very rapid rise in cases into the tens of thousands, which should place a lot of stress on our healthcare system.”

Sridhar said people should be prepared for even tougher curbs if cases continue to climb, such as limiting people movement and restaurant shutdown as seen in other places in the world.

He added a lockdown would be the most drastic measure, which could be most effective in reining in transmissions but come at a hefty social and economic cost.